From: Paula Higman
Engel & Völkers
890 Main Street 5-101
435-602-8228
MARKET CONDITIONS IN
THE LAST 10 MONTHS AND FOR THE NEXT 12-18 MONTHS:
·
Silver Star was sold
in August of 2017 and I believe that market conditions have deteriorated in
Park City since August of 2017.
·
Furthermore, the PC
market is very seasonal, and with the following changes in the economy, I
believe PC will have a very slow 2018 Summer/Fall/Winter carrying right through
till Spring of 2019
CLASSIC ECONOMIC
INDICATORS FOR A DOWNTURN:
·
Ending of quantitative
easing
·
Massive selling of US
Bonds, taking liquidity out of the market
·
Short and Long Term
Yields Increasing
·
Flattening of the debt
yield curve
·
Consumer Debt at
Historic High
·
Consumer Confidence at
18 Year High
·
Unemployment Rate at
49 Year Low
DETAIL ON THE
INDICATORS:
· Long Term Yields are up nearly 0.70% in the
last 10 months, since Silver Star #501 sold, and mortgage rates are up an
average of 1.22%
·
Short Term Debt Yields
are rising quickly compressing the Yield Curve. This has a huge strain on Short
Term Corporate Debt and Consumer Debt
·
Consumer Debt hit a
new high of $13 trillion last year, surpassing the previous record set in 2008
by $280 billion.
·
2 year Treasury ended
the week at 2.47%.
·
2 year Treasury was at
1.33% when Silver Star sold on 8/31/2017
·
30 Day LIBOR just hit
2.00%, the first reset at 2.00% since November 4, 2008.
·
The next Fed meeting
is June 13th and markets have a 100% probability of a hike.
·
LIBOR should be
roughly 2.10% - 2.15% by mid-June.
·
A hike in September
would put it around 2.35%.
·
A hike in December would
put it around 2.60%.
·
Consumer confidence
hit 18 year high in February of 2018. Since 1966 when the US Consumer
Confidence hits a new multi-year high, we have seen down turn in the real
estate market. (1968, 1978, 1989, 1999, 2007, and now February of 2018)
·
The Unemployment Rate
‘UR’ hit an 18 year low at 3.8%. In fact, the precise print was
3.755%. The last time the UR was at 3.7% - 1969.
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